Things to Watch

So I couldn't keep up my torrent pace of projecting every single conference tournament. I admit it, I'm throwing in the towel. I cannot preview 18 conference tournaments by tomorrow or Wednesday. That doesn't mean that I wont continue to blog throughout the upcoming week, and certainly, on Selection Sunday, the following week, and through March Madness (I have an unbelievably large, massive, insane blog planned for Sunday Night/Monday Afternoon that may cause you're head to explode). Part of me is upset that I didn't get to preview the more well-known conference tournaments. Part of me thinks that if I had to choose which tournaments to preview, I'm glad I did the lesser known ones. You all know that the Big East plays its tournament at MSG, and Pac10 at Staples, etc. But I feel as if I provided you with something important, something insightful, some sort of life-changing epiphany when I broke down the Ohio Valley Conference and all the entertainment one could have had in Nashville, TN this past week (and that tourney turned out good).

So instead of previewing every single game, I'm going to do a what to watch for type of thing here. This will usually revolve around teams on the bubble, so for example, I won't say "Watch out to see if Duke and UNC meet in the finals and have their third match-up of the year!" Everyone knows this is a possibility. Everyone is rooting for this to happen. So I don't need to say it. Let's start with tonight:

There are four conference tournament championships tonight. Seven of the eight teams involved, (all but St. Peters), could be trouble to teams in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Wofford and Charleston will only get one spot, and St. Peters and Iona will only get one spot.

Other than that, the other four teams could get anywhere from 2-4 spots. This means, VCU, Old Dominion, St. Marys, and Gonzaga. The only team that is guaranteed a spot in the tourney is Old Dominion. If I had it my way, I wouldn't invite either team that loses tonight (again, unless its ODU). I wouldn't be shocked to see all four teams make the tournament, but I wouldn't personally invite them. Therefore, if you're a fan of Alabama, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, or whoever else, you're rooting hard for ODU to win tonight.

Now, lets go by conference. If I fly through anything or gloss over anything, don't worry, I will continue to update throughout the week as the results come flying in:

ACC:

Don't say I didnt call VT, Clemson, and BC's prediciment. Last Saturday, after VT beat DUke, and Dick Vitale orgasmed on live TV, I knew that VT was due to lose at least one of their next two games, opening up pandora's box in the ACC, and letting every team in that didnt deserve to be in. As I watched VT eventually lose both games this week, I felt like Crispin Glover when he's high on LSD on Letterman: "I knew this was gonna happen!" (Click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALapHYNSmoA)

Now, a potential Clemson BC round 2 game in Greensboro becomes very big. I'm taking Clemson to win that game, and for them to make the tournament, BC to not. VT should beat GT, and ESPN will make their game against FSU the end-all, be-all of human existence.

A-10:
Temple and Xavier are safely in. Richmond is another story. Losing to Rhode Island or SLU would be disasterous for the Spiders. They've won 8 of 10, their only losses to X-gonna-give-it-to-you-avier, and Temple of Doom. They beat Purdue way back in 2010, and dont have any bad losses, (the worst being to RI). I would imagine Richmond gets in with a win. Duquesne has fallen hard, including a loss to Richmond over the weekend, and would need to win.

Big12:

This tournament may supply the least amount of drama of them all. The top four seeds, Kansas, Texas, TAMU, and K-State all figure to be safely in. Mizzou, who finished 6th, is in. Baylor and Nebraska would need to win their second round games against Texas and Kansas, respectively, to even havea chance. That leaves Colorado.

Beating Iowa State would do nothing for the Buffaloes (losing to them would). Beating K-State in the 2nd round, however, may be a deal breaker (remember, Im not necessarily saying I agree with this, I mentioned before I dont approve of the knee-jerk fashion of college Bball. Just saying how it is). Beating K-State might be enough to get Colorado in. They would be 21-13 (assuming they lose to Kansas), with wins over Texas and Mizzou. They have bad losses to San Fran, Oklahoma, and to other bubble team UGA. Stay tuned.

Big East:

Might draw some drama for the quality of teams and games. Other than that, nothing. They figure to get 11 teams in. The other 5 would need to win it all, which you can bet against happening. Even teams such as Uconn and Villanova, which finished 9th and 10th in the conference, are easily in as Lunardi has them as a 5 and 7 seed, respectively (if a martian crash landed outside my office, came inside, was looking at what I was doing, asked me what I was doing, and I had to explain to him how Uconn, who lost 2 in a row, dropped from 16th to 19th in the rankings, finished 9th in the conference, yet are looking at a 5 seed in the tourney, I dont think I would be able to. I'd have a better chance explaining quantum physics to him.)

The only team that could be on the bubble is Marquette. If they lose to Providence (which is NOT a big if,) they would be 18-14, losers of three in a row, and their only quality wins are against Syracuse, ND, and WV. I really don't think they should be in no matter what happens. If they win one, and then lose to WV, it may be interesting. Win both, and Dan Shulman will start to cry tears of joy as he realizes the Big East will have locked up 11 teams.

Big10:

The drama is thick here. Top 3 are in safely, and look to get good seeds. There was a four way tie for 4th between Michigan, illinois, MSU, and PSU. Out of that, Michigan ended up 4th, Illinois 5th, PSU 6th, and MSU 7th. Illinois is the only one of the four that figures to be in no matter what (if they lose to Michigan and dont get in, im not watching the tournament).

As far as the other three go: Michigan has been playing as well as anybody, but I'm not totally impressed with their wins. The two best teams they played in the last 10 games, they lost both. That being said, one was to Illinois on the road (lost by 2), and the other was to Wisconsin (who they lost to by 2, at the buzzer). Will the selection committee look at that? Win and their in, lose and their 50-50.

MSU befuddles me. As is the case with Michigan, anyone theyve beaten recently isnt worth writing home about. They beat Illinois at home in an ugly game. Other than that, they havent beaten a top 50 team since the first week of January. Their win over Washington now looks shittier too. They should beat Iowa, but I don't think they belong in. Will thier great track record and history get them over the hump?

Penn State played the toughest schedule of them all, and has the worst record to show for it. In my mind, and I think I'm with the committee on this one, they need to beat Indiana and Wisconsin to get in.


Conference USA:
Only two teams should get in here, tops. Id guess UAB and UTEP. If one goes down early, this could be a one bid league. If Memphis gets in I'm going to go Tyler Durden and repeatedly punch myself in the face. Then, Ill get up, compose myself, fill my car up with $4.05/gallon gas, drive to Las Vegas, and promptly bet on whoever they're playing.


Mountain West:
All eyes still on BYU to see how they perform without Davies. Do we have SDSU BYU III on tap? If so, does SDSU finally get over the hump? (If you watched the last game, SDSU kicked BYU's ass on the boards anyway.....BYU won cause they hit every three). UNLV should be in regardless, although they shouldnt lose to Air Force on their home floor either. Seeds will be important for those three as the tourney goes on.

As far as Colorado State; they figure to be outside looking in. If they beat New Mexico, they would probably still need to beat BYU (who they played tough twice), to get in.

Speaking of Old Mexico, heres a team that got no publicity, but is quietly 20-11. They beat other bubble team COlorado. They beat BYU twice. Perhaps losing to Wyoming and Utah twice are kisses of death, but if they beat Colorado State, they could beat BYU for the third time, and all of a sudden be in the big dance. Dont say you havent been warned when all of a sudden youre watching March Madness and you see Steve Alford's face again.

Pac10:
Zona and UCLA are locks, but four teams all of a sudden find themselves on the bubble. Washington has played like they had their heads up their ass for the last couple of weeks, but should be okay. They face Wazzu the first game of the tourney. Wazzu had been hot, and I wrote about their prospects of sneaking into the tourney. Then, their best player got pulled over and was found with 1.7 grams of marijuana in his car. He was suspended (for one game), and the team blew a big lead at home vs UCLA. If they had won, maybe theyre in. Now, they definitely need to beat Washington to advance.

USC needs to win at least two games to get in. Simply beating Cal wont cut it. They beat Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Washington, and UCLA this year. They also lost to fucking TCU, Rider, Bradley, and ORegon (x2). Cal would most likely have to win it all, so I guess that doesn't really make them a bubble team.

SEC:

Drama galore here. Why? My guess is cause all these teams suck. Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt all figure to be in. After that, there are three teams competing. All three could get in, I feel that one should.

Alabama: Theyve won 20 games, but played absolutely nobody, and beat nobdoy, out of conference. Their schedule in conference sets up nicely (as did everyone in the West.) They beat Kentucky at home, and won at Tenn. They also beat UGA. (For thsoe who dont know, the SEC plays everyone in their division twice, and everyone in the other division once. Therefore, the teams in the East are at a tremendous disadvantage as all the good teams are in the East. Yet, Brad Nessler still has the audacity to compare the overall records, as if Alabama having the same record is anywhere near Florida having the same one).

Georgia: Slipping fast. They looked strong after their win at Tennessee (have the VOls beaten anybody)? They are 20-10. They do get to play Auburn. When they win, they will have a rematch with Bama. The "do-or-die" over the weekend between Bama and UGA will be played out again. This time it will be "Do-or-Die II: Win-And-Youre-In, Lose-and-youre-probably-still in, starring Jimmy Dykes, live, from the Georgia Dome."

Tennessee: Saved the worst for last. Tennessee has gone 3-6 in their last nine. Two of those wins were against South Carolina. During that stretch, they lost to fellow bubblers Georgia and Alabama at home. This team lost to USC, Charlotte, Charleston, and Oakland. THEYRE 18-13. They finished .500 in the 7th best conference. DESPITE ALL THIS LUNARDI HAS THEM AS A 9 SEED AND IN NO DANGER OF MISSING THE TOURNEY.

Poise. Breathe.


One final team of note is the Utah State Aggies. They're 28-3, and I devoted part of my inaugural post to their prospects of going deep into the tournament (the real one, not the WAC). Despite this, people (Jerry Palm) feel they need to win the WAC to get in, and if they dont, their chances are close to none. I can't disagree with this more. Palm's main argument is that Utah State beat St. Marys, and St. Marys hasnt played well, so Utah State isn't good. WTF? Is this even close to sound? Since when is it a criteria that you HAVE to beat St. Marys, and then they HAVE to be good on top of it to get to the tournament. Is winning 28 games trumped by the fact that St. Marys lost to San Diego? Does UCONN get penalized for DePaul sucking ass? What an asshole. Utah State has a BYE to the final four, and may play Idaho (the only team to beat them in WAC play). All in all, Utah State should win the tournament. If they don't they should be in the NCAA.