Friday Recap:
From the Valley:
As I noted earlier, we almost saw the first big upset in SIU over Missouri State. The Bears hit three 3's in the final 3 minutes, however, and narrowly escaped, 58-56. They now play Creighton. Things went according to form in the other quarterfinals, and Wichita State is set to face Indiana State tomorrow. Had Missouri State lost today, it would 100% certainly be a one bid league. Even still, I see it as that, but who knows at this point.
From the OVC:
The stories of the night. Tennessee Tech does pull the biggest upset of the night, beating Murray State. Murray State was the #1 seed in the OVC, and my personal pick to win the Valley (of Ohio). Tennessee Tech's coach, Mike Sutton, suffers from Guillian-Barre syndrome, and coaches from a wheelchair. He was interviewed at halftime of the Austin Peay Morehead State game, and seems like a really nice guy.
Speaking of Morehead State - they looked impressive in their win over Austin Peay. Morehead State has a player you probably heard of, Kenneth Faried. He is the leading rebounder in the nation, averaging 14.3 a game. He also averages 17.6 ppg. He has drawn several comparisons to Dennis Rodman. He is almost guaranteed a first round pick in the NBA draft, and may be a lottery pick. I was very impressed with him. You may be skeptical about (of?) Faried, as he plays in the OVC, but consider this. Faried played two major teams this year: Ohio State and Florida. Against Ohio State, (and Jared Sullinger), he recorded 15 and 12, and against Florida, he recorded 20 and 18. I.e, he averaged 17.5 and 15 against major conference teams. Since 2 games is such a small sample size, its unreasonable to think he would keep that pace if he were to play a full season against quality competition, however, it isn't unreasonable to assume he would average a double double should he play in any of the major conferences. Watching him, he passes the "eye test", which are two words I don't care for that are used frequently this time of the year. He should be a lottery pick.
All in all, tomorrow night's game between Morehead State and Tenn Tech should be worth watching. Remember this as you're listening to Dick Vitale kiss Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzweski, Harrison Barnes, Dan Shulman, Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, etc.'s ass.
From the WCC:
Another big upset with Loyola Marymount over Portland. Not that POrtland was a bubble team or anything, but they had the potential to pose a threat to St. Marys. Now, a St. Mary's Gonzaga final is looking more and more like a certainty (thanks to a double bye in an eight team tournament). Just like in the MVC, perhaps this conference can sneak two teams into the NCAA tourney.
From the CAA:
No upsets. True, James Madison lost to William & Mary, (I somehow know people who went to both schools), but Madison needed to win the CAA tournament to get in regardless, a tough endeavor. Stay tuned, as business is going to pick up as Old Dominion, George Mason, and VCU take the floor.
From the Horizon:
Another double bye tourney. Again, no upsets. The final four should be great. Cleveland State vs Butler, and Valpo vs Wisc-Milwaukee. Games in Milwaukee.
From the A-Sun
Big upset with North Florida over East Tennessee State. North Florida was 8.5 point underdogs in today's game, and was the sixth ranked team in the A-Sun. They face my buddies, Belmont, tomorrow in the finals. Belmont beat them by 32 at home, but only 2 on the road, this year. Stay tuned.
From the Ivy League:
Both Princeton and Harvard won today, setting up the potential championship game tomorrow night in Boston. If Princeton wins, they're in the tournament. If Harvard wins, it goes down to Sundays games. As of 10 PM PST, no spread has been released. Princeton won the first game at home, 65-61. I predict the spread will be around Harvard -5.
Tomorrow's Action:
Teams that can't afford to lose:
Washington State
The Cougars just can't seem to get respect. Let's do one of those dumb things where I say team A, and team B.
Team A: 19-10, 9-8 in the conference, RPI 68, 5-5 in last10, SOS 50.
Team B: 18-11, 7-8 in the conference, RPI 77, 5-5 in las10, SOS 81.
One more important fact, Team A BEAT Team B.
Team A is Wash State. Team B is Baylor. Any other stat you wanna find, I bet you Wazzu excels in it.
So it doesn't make much sense to me when Baylor is constantly ranked ahead of Wazzu.
Losing Klay Thompson for tomorrow is a dagger though. Guy was pulled over for a broken taillight, and was found with 1.8 grams of marijuana. Suspended for ONE game (thank god he doesnt play for BYU). Despite losing their best player, the cougars have opened as 2 point underdogs at home against UCLA (should be a great game). Win, and I don't see how you keep a 20-10, 10-8 team, in the Pac10, a 4th place team, out of the tourney. Especially when the team has wins over other bubble teams in Baylor and Gonzaga, EXPLAIN IT TO ME.
Richmond:
I think that Richmond is hanging on to their early season win over Purdue just a little too much. No doubt, it is a fantastic win, the best the A-10 has to offer. Right now, though, theyre 23-7. They have a tough home game against Duquesne. Richmond has already locked up third in the A-10, so it doesnt matter from that perspective, but 23-8 would be less attractive, and make them a team that has to win the A-10 tourney.
Illinois:
No comment.
New Mexico:
If the Mountain West wants four teams in the tournament, New Mexico cant afford to lose at home against Air Force. They shouldn't, and they should win their 20th game.
Marquette:
Seton Hall has played everyone tough at home. They beat Villanova, Alabama, and most recently St. Johns, at home, while playing Syracuse, Gtown, and Uconn to 5 point or less losses. Marquette could be next. The Golden Eagles are sitting on an 18-12 record.
Alabama:
They're favored by 5 over UGA at home tomorrow. I honestly cant say whether they need to win tomorrow or not. They figure to be the most interesting team come selection sunday. Here is a team that is currently 19-10, but 11-4 in the conference. I spoke earlier of how the SEC is not only horribly overrated, but downright sucks. Furthermore, winning the SEC West means absolutely nothing to me. Sure, they beat UK at home this year, but everyone else has beaten UK at home too. They won at Tennessee and......................ehhhh, nothing else really. This would be one of their better wins.
ALONG THOSE LINES, LOSE AND YOU'RE OUT, WIN AND YOU'RE STILL IN:
I talked about how I don't like this kind of language the other day; that the NCAA tourney looks to closely at the final 10 games of your resume, (and even final 3), instead of the whole schedule. But, since thats the way it is, let's talk about the way it is. Here are a list of games that could be deal breakers for both teams:
Michigan State @ Michigan (-1.5)
I can't see more than 5 teams from the Big10 getting in. I would like it, but I doubt it. Assuming Wisk, Purdue, OSU are locks, and that Illinois gets in, then I see one of these teams getting in. Michigan already beat MSU in East Lansing. MSU is 17-12, Michigan is 18-12. Both are 9-8 in the Big10. MSU played a tougher schedule, but it would be difficult for them to get in if they lost to Michigan twice, and finished in 6th place in the Big10 with a 17-13 record. If Michigan lost, they would be 18-13, with their best win against MSU once, and Clemson. Neither would be NCAA worthy with a loss.....
Drexel VCU
In the sense that neither team has done enough to earn the at-large. Both need to win the CAA.
Cleveland State vs. Butler
Same thing as above. Contrary to popular opinion, I feel the Horizon is a one bid league.
Nebraska @ Colorado (-5)
My guess is that neither team ends up in the tournament, but the loser certainly wont. Both teams are 7-8 in the Big12. Colorado is 15-3 at home, 3-9 on the road. Nebraska is 17-2 at home, and 1-6 on the road. A nice way of putting this is both teams are good at home, capable of beating Kansas or Texas. A more pessimistic way would be to say "both teams suck on the road." Colorado figures to win.
Nebraska is an odd team. That is, their schedule is odd. They played three games in Puerto Rico in mid-November, as most teams now do (travel and play at a neutral site that is). Besides that, they did not leave Nebraska until JANUARY 12. YOU HEAR ME? They went to Puerto Rico, and played every other game in Lincoln until Jan 12. Then, they played their eight Big12 road games, and that was that.
If Colorado wins, can they get in? Doubtful. They lost to UGA. They lost to Harvard. They lost to New Mexico. They lost to Oklahoma, Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State (2 days ago). They did beat Colorado State, Mizzou, K-State, and Texas. Still, not that impressive.
The "HES NOT SUPPOSED TO BE HERE" group; teams that if they lost wouldn't mean much, but if they won, would catapult them a great deal:
Colorado State (+12) @ UNLV
They're probably on the outside looking in, and ultimately wont finish in, but beating UNLV in Vegas will help a lot. This would give them 20 wins. They've already locked up 4th in the MWC, and could win another game, setting up a semifinal against BYU.
Southern California (+9) Washington
USC wont fall out of competition if they lose, and they won't be in if they win. But, if they win, theyll secure 4 seed in the Pac10 tourney. This would mean they'd play either Cal or Wazzu, who they could beat on a neutral/non-neutral site such as Staples (esp. with H in attendance). If they won the next two games, they would be 19-13, with wins over Arizona, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Washington, and Wazzu. They do, however, have losses to Rider, TCU, Nebraska, and Oregon State. Right now, theyre 17-13, and 9-8 in Pac10. If they had only beaten Cal and Oregon, both AT HOME, theyd be 19-11, and 11-6. That would be NCAA tourney worthy, even with losses to Rider and TCU. FUCK.
Game that doesnt fit into any category cause this is all fixed and theyll both end in anyway:
Virginia Tech @ Clemson (-3.5)
I saw this coming. I called this in my blog after VT beat Duke, and Vitale shit his pants on live TV, yelling at VT's coach, Seth Greenberg, "Youre in baby, relax! are you serious, awesome with a capital A," and all other sorts of stuff that was cool in 1991. VT beat Duke, and Greenberg was reserved about their chances of making the tourney. He mentioned they would play two tough games down the stretch. They lsot at home to BC by 15 this week. now, theyre underdogs to Clemson. Of course, a single win against Duke guarantees you a trip to the tourney (just ask FSU). Now, BC figures to be in, and Clemson will be in if they win too! Think about it. Clemson will have beaten VT, who beat Duke. By the transitive property that we all learned in 4th grade, thats like Clemson beat Duke! (even though they lost to them by 11...in only one meeting, favorable ACC scheduling!....also, important point, BC only played Duke once, and lost by 16). VT is 19-9, 9-6 in ACC, and Clemson is 19-10, 8-7 in ACC. I think VT is in either way, deservedly so. Clemson shouldnt be in, either way.
Even if they win, theyd be 20-10, 9-7. That WILL get them in. Should it? Their best win would be vs VT, then FSU, then BC, then Seton Hall. Forget that they lost to other bubble Michigan, ODU, and lost to Virginia. It all worked out in the ACC's favor. Unbalanced schedules lead to un-good teams winning more games than not and making the tournament. That should be the subtitle to the documentary of the 2011 ACC tournament.
While theyre at it, they should just invite Wake Forest to be a 10 seed.
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