First, as you probably have already heard. this will be the first final four without a 1 or 2 seed. There were only two other final fours that had no one seeds. In 2006, #3 Florida won the title over #2 UCLA, and #11 George Mason and #4 LSU lost in the final four. In 1980, #2 Louisville beat #8 UCLA, and #6 Purdue beat #5 Iowa in the third place game.
In the prior eight years, the champion was ranked either #1 or #2 by Pomeroy every year except one; 2003 when #7 Syracuse won (remember, I'm talking overall now). This year, going into today, Kentucky was ranked #6, UConn #12 (the highest the Huskies have been all year), Butler #37, and VCU #58 (they should move up, slightly).
If VCU wins, it will be the first time a double digit seed made the finals, and thus, the lowest seeded team to make the finals. Twice before, an eleven seed made the Final Four. In 1986, #11 LSU lost to eventual champion Louisville, and in 2006, #11 Mason lost to eventual champion Florida.
Pomeroy had VCU's odds of getting to the ELITE EIGHT as 500-1. Many places in Vegas offered VCU as 250-1 to win the region (obviously terrible odds, but if you had that, I don't think youre complaining right now). According to Pomeroy's log5 analysis of the bracket before any games were played, VCU was a 1 in 3300 longshot to make the final four.
VCU was certainly the biggest underdog in an elite game since 2007. That doesnt say much. The most likely next biggest was George Mason vs Uconn in 2006. I cannot find any print of this spread, but for whatever reason, I don't think it was this big. I vaugely remember it being in the ballpark of 6.5.
VCU is by far the lowest ranked team to make the final four in the past 8 years by Pomeroy. Butler's miracle season last year was great, but the BUlldogs were ranked 12th by Pomeroy. Mason was 26th in 2006. Between those two was #14 Villanova in 2009, Marquette was #16 in 2003. Did I mention VCU was #58 coming into today?
As far as Butler goes, the Bulldogs are the first team to make b2b final fours in which they were not #1 or #2 either year. They had a 1% chance of making the final four. They can try to tie Villanova in 1985 as the lowest seed to win the tournament. BUtler had a 1 in 2500 chance to win the tournament at the start. Now, they are favored to be back in the national title game.
VCU had a 1 in 203187 chance. Sit on that for a moment. For those who don't understand how this works, it says that if they played the tournament 203188 times, VCU would win it once. They play this tournament once a year. Civilization has existed for 7000 years. So three times longer than civilization has existed, is how often VCU would win. They're two games away.
UConn didnt have great odds either. They were figured to win the title game 1 in 100 times. They ended up being favored in every game, but not by much. They also benefited from Duke's loss. They will be underdogs for the first time next week.
Kentucky has become the favorite. They started as 1 in 30 longshots to win the tourney.
Butler is -3, and UK is -2 next weekend.
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