Thursday, March 10, 2011

Pitt can score, but man are they soft.

Popular opinion says that the Pitt Panthers are a defensive team.

You have to match their toughness, their size. Anytime you play them, you're gonna be in a brawl. If you score 60 points, you're going to win.

Wrong. Wrong. Wronger.

Pittsburgh is one of the better offensive teams in the nation. Surprised to hear that last sentence? Maybe you are, but its the truth.

Sure, Pittsburgh averages 74.1 points per game, good for 51st in the nation. Although this ranks in the 85th percentile, it may not impress you. In a more important statistic, offensive efficiency, which measures a team's points per every 100 possessions. There are on average 70 possessions a game, so your points per/100 is going to be more than your points/per game. This is a more accurate indicator of a team's offense because it factors in the tempo of their play. If a team takes 35 seconds off the clock two possessions in a row, and scores 4 points, this is more effective than a team who has 5 possessions in the same time, and scores 5 points. It comes down to your PPP, points per possession.

When looking at this statistic, Pittsburgh ranks 5th in the nation, only behind: Wisconsin, Ohio State, ND, Kansas. Having three Big10 teams in the top 5 may be surprising to many, especially Wisconsin. Wisconsin ranks in the bottom 5 in the nation in tempo. Yet, they score more per possession than ANY team in the nation.

Back to Pitt though. Like Wisconsin, Pitt plays a very slow game (309th in the nation). Their success is dependent on not turning the ball over (sounds simple, but its true). In 3 of their 4 losses this year, Pitt turned the ball over 15+ times. The only exception was against ND. IN that game, ND milked the clock and didn't let Pitt get the ball. Makes perfect sense. If you were playing a team who was 5th in the nation in terms of points per possession, you would,........want to limit their possessions. ND did this. THe other teams, (Tenn, Lville, and St Johns), were able to do a similar thing by forcing turnovers. Pitt's turnover efficiency is 78th in the nation. Not great, not bad either. That is why they have lost some games.

More disconcerting for Pitt, is how they blew the game to UConn as I write this; they gave up 13 offensive rebounds. Although UConn is a traditionally good rebounding team, if Pitt were the tough, physical team, that the press made them out to be, they would not have allowed that many rebounds. THey didn't lose because their offense sucks, they lost because they were soft - the EXACT opposite of what ESPN tells us (that Pitt is tough, but they cant score).

No one knows where this stereotype about Pitt has come about. Coach Jamie Dixon was asked about it recently (cant find the article), and he was confused as I was. He suggested it may have something to do with being in Pittsburgh; being associated with the defensive minded Steelers and the city's blue collar, lunch-pail ideology (he didnt mention that the Pirates being awful may contribute to this). But it should be noted. Pitt is 5th in offense this year, and 16th in defense. Two years ago, when Pitt had DeJaun Blair and made a run to the Elite Eight, they were 2nd in offense, and 35th in defense! They're clearly a team that relies on their offense more than their defense, despite what the image of them may be.

Final note: Its fun to think of teams this way. If I said two teams: Wisconsin and North Carolina, you would imagine that UNC plays uptempo, has a better offense, and a worse defense, where Wisconsin plays sloooooow, grinds it out, plays great D, but has trouble scoring. Well, the ideas about tempo are true; UNC plays the 18th fastest game, while Wisconsin plays the 2nd slowest. However, when it comes to points per possession, and points allowed per possession, UNC has the 37th best offense, and the 3rd best defense, while Wisconsin has the best offense, and the 71st best defense! FYI, Wisconsin has the best turnover ratio and the best offense in the nation.


As Garth Algar would say "doesn't that blow your mind?"

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