Sunday, April 10, 2011

Les Miles is a better coach than you

The media is a funny thing, and that is an understatement. They have ways of twisting reality, presenting what they want, and going with it. Once you're on their good or bad side, you would have to a hell of a lot to get on the other side. So if Kobe is an awesome basketball players and a "fierce competitor," it doesnt matter that he raped somebody. If Terrell Owens is a terrible teammate and selfish on the football field, it doesnt matter that he received an award in D.C. for

Another stereotype that has come across lately is in regards to Les Miles and his "gunslinger," "throw caution to the wind," coaching style. If you asked someone about Les Miles they'd say "hes nuts," "hes an idiot," or "I dont trust him in big games." Other people openly question some plays and decisions hes made - even when they work (more on this later). This is a somewhat interesting point. Think of all the LSU trick plays you have seen in the past 3 years. How many blew up in their face? More often than not, they work. So how does that make him an idiot? It would be like Dr. House constantly thinking of new inventive ways to cure a patient, but never receives credit for being a genius - even in this show, people dont agree with his methods, but they dont ostracize him as a whole, since they realize his greatness.

His record speaks for itself. IN the three years proceeding his arrival at Oklahoma State, the Cowboys were 13-20. In four years there, Miles went 28-21, which included a 4-7 record in his inaugural season. Post Barry Sanders in 1988, OSU had one winning season; in 1997 when they eventually lost to Purdue in the Alamo Bowl. Once Miles showed up, they had 3 in a row. All said, the reason you see Oklahoma State on tv ever nowadays is because of what Miles created.

In his six years at LSU, he is 90-38. Hes won the national title. Hes won a sugar bowl. Hes won 2 peach bowls. In fact, he is 5-1 in bowl games, his lone loss coming against PSU in the Capital One Bowl. Hes 1-1 in SEC title games, and 3-3 vs Arkansas. So thats not stellar, but his bowl game record should eliminate any notion that he is not good in big games. Last year, LSU was 5-2 against ranked teams, the lone losses to Arkansas and #1 Auburn.

But people are still going to criticize his playcalling, clock management, and style. I can't break down and defend every single play, but I will do one. This one, from the 2007 game vs Auburn, drew a lot of attention. The narrative that exists is; "Miles was down 1, they only needed a field goal, and he bombed it with one second left and they miraculously caught it! They got lucky!"

Well, lets look at this all again, and realize that this was actually a really smart fucking play.

LSU has the ball on the 23, 3rd and 7, 40 seconds and ticking left. Mike Patrick, who should not be consulted for any sort of football strategy, assumed that LSU would run the clock down, line up for a field goal, and kick the 40 yard field goal to win the game by 2 as time expires.

But why would you do that? First off, David ended up 6/10 from FG's 40+ yards that year. So, if youre at that point, and you concede the time, let it tick down, and say "were kicking a field goal" you are giving yourself a 60% chance of winning. If you give yourself another play though, you are increasing your chances of winning. Seems simple right?

As Blackledge points out, they tell Flynn "dont take a sack" - okay, he took a quick 5 step drop, turned, and fired. He was in no jeopardy of taking a sack. Then, they say "throw it where only we can catch it." Again, good job. It ended up being a great throw and catch, but they didn't ask Flynn or Byrd to do anything extraordinary. 5 Step drop, 40 yard throw, fly route. Easy. It worked.

Many people would argue - what if it gets intercepted. Well, what are the odds of that happening? First off, the play works in large part due to its surprise factor. LSU got a one on one, which a receiver should win more often than not. So there was no roaming safety help here. Freeze it at :35, and look at Auburn's secondary. Mainly, look at #4, who is lined up on the 16 yard line just below the referee. He, if anyone, would be responsible for help on the bottom half of the field. However, he is playing SIX yards off the line, incredibly short for a safety. Clearly, Auburn was expecting run. His first step on the snap is forward as well, a recipe for disaster. Anyone who ever played football, basketball, outfield in baseball, etc, knows it is a lot easier to go back one step then forward, than it is to take a step in and then retreat.

Now, freeze it at 1:00. The play is already underway (nice replay ESPN), and #4 has already made his initial step. Look how he reacts. Does he move? No. He might as well have not been out on the field on that play. So the answer the question; odds that this particular pass gets intercepted? Slim. The DB on the bottom covering Byrd, who is caught off surprise to a certain extent on his own, would need to get fully turned around, something he never does, and make a terrific play on the ball. All in all, he defended it pretty well, and still had no chance of making an interception. Whatever the actual percentage of an interception is, its much less than David missing the field goal in the first place.

Lets look at it this way. David making FG = 60%. Missing 40%. If you take it on that play alone, then that was LSU's chances of winning and losing the game. Add in the pass, however, with some rough estimates;

Chance its intercepted = 5% Chance its caught 15%. Chance its incomplete. 80%. Those are generous, as I described above. But even under this assumption, we see that, obviously, LSU's chances of winning increases. 5% of the time, they lose on this play, but they would lose 40% of the time on the field goal anyway. 80% of the time, it comes down to the field goal anyway. But 15% of the time, they win. I would think that a good coach would do things that would increase their teams chances to win, and thats what Miles did.

The funniest part of the argument against Miles is that the call occurred with 1 second left. As you can see, LSU snapped it with 8 seconds left, and it was caught with 3 left, then the clock ticked down to 1. So it wasnt a do or die situation. If it was incomplete, then it was incomplete, and they get another play, and would try the FG.

I don't necessarily disagree with anything Tuberville did. If you're winning, you want to shorten the game; why take a time out wiht 40 seconds left, and let LSU draw up a play? Why not put more pressure on LSU? And I agree with LSU, obviously. If you're losing, why purposely take 40 seconds off the clock and leave yourself one play?

Its really this easy. If I told you "youre coaching a team, and youre losing; would you rather have two plays to try and score, or one play?" I think we all know which we would choose. This seemingly logical explanation is somehow lost. Instead, the media looks for cute alternatives, and says "Miles is crazy," or that hes "the mad hatter." Call him an idiot and say wahtever you want, but the truth is, surprise, he knows what the fuck he is doing. LSU is loaded again this year, and I can't wait to see what they do. They open up the season with Oregon in the Cowboys stadium. You think there might be some speed and smoke and mirrors on the display there? Mercy!

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