Overrated/Underrated

I held out from doing a blog for so long.

I don't know why. I think it's because I found it difficult to admit that no one is willing to listen to me in real life. Sure, people ask me about sports sometimes, and do listen to what I have to say. But, they realize that asking me about college football or college basketball is kinda like asking your mom for advice in something. Sure, there may be about thirty seconds in there that is useful, but there will be about forty minutes of rambling, un-solicited advice, biased opinions, and other nonsense which ultimately leads the person trying to escape my long winded answers, and me being frustrated because I don't think they grasped all my "lessons." So, I guess I'll start a blog.

What better way to start than to start with college basketball? I've been following all year of course, and this is probably the year I've most been into the sport. It's extremely competitive and all that, and with an NBA lockout looming, it may be the only basketball we have for awhile, so better get used to it. There were a lot of ways I could have gone for the inaugural post, but I decided on overrated/underrated.

As the conference tournaments and March Madness loom closer, everyone will be looking for a sleeper to make a significant run, and for the team that will be cutting down the nets on April 4^th in Houston. This article is meant to give insight into who will be overrated and who will be underrated come tournament time. How do I judge the ratings? Well, based on bracketologists from more reputable websites than my own, I’ve been tracking what seeds teams will be potentially getting. While they may not get exactly that seed, studying these men’s brackets helps you guage approximately where teams will be, and who will suffer first round letdowns, and which double digit seeds can make a run. Ready?

OVERRATED:

Connecticut - If you know me, you know I’ve been down on Connecticut for a while. Their early non-conference schedule will assure them a 6 seed or higher, no matter how they finish. They won the Maui tournament with wins over Wichita State, Michigan State, and Kentucky, but all of those wins are not looking as good as they did in November. We must also not forget that only a Wichita State collapse allowed UConn to escape the first round. Their win in Austin remains their most impressive win.

Despite all this, UConn has lost five of their last eight. Their three wins came at Seton Hall (in a double digit second half comeback), Providence, and Georgetown ( a quality win). They still have to travel to Cincinatti, West Virginia, and host Notre Dame, so 2-1 would be very impressive at this point.

Jeremy Lamb came on strong in late January and early February, but has disappeared as of late. In a six game stretch during that time, Lamb averaged 34 minutes, and averaged 11.3 PPG. More importantly, UConn was 4-2 in that stretch. In the last six games, however, he has averaged 7.6 PPG, including ZERO against Louisville at home on 0 for 3 shooting. In his last three games, he is shooting 7-25.

Kemba Walker garnered early headlines, and perhaps deservedly so. He has continued to put an impressive PPG stat, but his FG% leaves something to be desired. In UConn’s seven losses, he is 45/140, for 32%. More disturbing, however, is the 20 FGA/game in those losses, much more than his average. In UConn’s 20 wins, Walker attempted more than 20 FGs only 3 times. 1) Nov. 17 against Vermont, 2) January 8 @ Texas (he was 8/27, but hit the game winner), February 16 against Georgetown. Simply put, the more he shoots, the worse UConn does. He’s a good player, but, like his team, overrated.

Beyond Lamb and Walker, no one on UConn has impressed me enough. Jamal Coombs-McDaniel has seen an increase in playing time, and a massive increase in points, averaging 21.3 over his last three! He could be someone that keeps UConn afloat. Overall though, the team seems too disjointed without enough consistent scorers. Worst of all, they’re trending the wrong direction, and the latest allegations and findings against UConn only hurts more.

Florida - If we are going based on predicted seeds, I suppose that Florida is even more overrated than Connecticut. Joe Lunardi currently has Florida as a 3 seed, i.e. as a top 12 team. Well, let me be the first to tell you, they’re not. I would rank their best wins as UK at home on February 5, @ Georgia on January 25, and @ Xavier on New Years Eve. All good wins, but nothing amazing that makes me feel like Florida can make an elite eight or even a sweet 16 run. The team was blown out by Ohio State at home early on, and they also lost at home to South Carolina and Jacksonville. Jacksonville is currently third in the Atlantic Sun. I hate playing the common opponent game, but I will here. Not only is Belmont ranked higher than Florida in kenpom.com’s rankings, but they beat Jacksonville twice this year. They did it by an average of 18.5 points too. If Florida ends up getting a 4/5 seed, and Belmont plays them, Belmont would be favored. I cant really remember an instance of a 4 seed being an underdog, but this would be it. Playing the common opponent game, it would make sense why.

Kenpom (who I will mention often, and is the authority on college basketball), has the SEC ranked 7^th in the nation in terms of conferences. A history lesson: only once in the past seven years did one of the “BCS conferences” not finish in the top 6 in rankings. This occurred in 2004, when the Pac-10 finished 9^th (ouch….interestingly that year as well, Stanford earned a 1 seed, and was eliminated in the second round by Alabama). But, as for this year, the SEC is firmly behind the Mountain West Conference in 7^th place. Therefore, winning the conference is not the greatest accomplishment of all time.

Florida still has to play its two toughest games of the year; tomorrow night at Rupp, and the finale at Vanderbilt. They figure to lose both of those, and most likely will end up a 4/5 seed (I need once in my life to have a 3 or 4 seed be underdogs, please).

Memphis - Memphis should not be in the tournament. Period. I realize that they have overachieved (in my mind), and won a lot of close games. Their best wins are UAB (twice), and Southern Miss (twice). Losing to Rice and SMU is killer. They shoot a putrid 67% from the FT line, and do not score consistently enough. Their leading scorer, Will Barton, averaged 4 points the last two games.

Point to note. Pomeroy has Memphis ranked 86^th in the nation. You may not consider this a big deal, saying to yourself “86^th is okay, close enough to 68” (even though this would be ignoring all the automatic bids that get in), until you realize the company they’re in. They’re ranked one spot ahead of Iowa. Theyre ranked 4 behind N.C. State. Those are two teams near the bottom of their respective conferences, and are in no tournament discussion. Yet, can you imagine N.C. State or Iowa as an 11 seed?

Also, I believe only one team from C-USA should get in this year. I’m all for a diversity of teams and all that, but there hasn’t been one consistent team all year. Right now, there is a three way tie atop the standings between Memphis, S. Mississippi, and UAB (all 9-4).

Underrated:

Utah State - I thought the consensus before last week’s bracket buster was the Aggies could use the win @ St. Mary’s, but it didn’t really matter if they won or not. Then, they go into Moraga and win (St. Marys is turning out to be really disappointing by the way). So, when I started to read things this week, I figured that Utah State would be firmly planted in the bracket, nothing to worry about, right? Wrong. Despite their impressive win at Saint Marys, many are saying that Utah State needs to win the WAC tournament to make the tournament. For one, I disagree. Secondly, this is a team that could put a serious scare into a higher seed.

They have a great player in Tai Wesley, who averages 14.5 PPG, 8 rebounds, and shoots close to 60%. Hes put up 20 in 3 of their last 5, and a double double in 2 of the last five. They have a sharpshooter in Brain Green, averaging 47% from beyond three, and the team shoots a respectable 73% from the FT line. They’re also the seventh most experienced team. The only teams ahead of them? Well, out of the ones who matter; St. John’s is third, and Wofford is second, should they decide to make a run in the Southern Conference tournament. Therefore, Utah State will be either the third, but more likely the second most experienced team in the tournament. Two years ago, they lost in the first round to Marquette by 1. Last year, they ran into a tough Texas A&M team. This year is their year to finally get past the first round, and put a legitimate scare into a top ranked team.

In short, the team shoots well (51.6% from 2P%), hits their free throws, rebounds well, plays good defense, and will be one of the more experienced teams. What more could you want?

Washington - When I saw Washington play early in the season, I thought they had the talent to win it all. It hasn’t worked out quite that way, but the talent is still there. I believe that one of the reasons the Pac-10 doesn’t get the credit it deserves is that, in addition to being on the west coast and playing their games late, is that the teams in the conference are horribly inconsistent. Washington definitely falls under this category. When on, they can compete with a lot of teams.

Washington will play the second fastest game out of teams in the tournament (provided Oakland gets in). It’s not to say that playing a faster game is better or will translate into more wins, but it can provide trouble for some teams.

For example. I think a team such as Ohio State can have trouble with Washington. Before I go on, I want to say that I think Ohio State and Duke are 1 and 1a, and that the Buckeyes have all the tools to win it all. Desptie this, a matchup with Washington or another up-tempo team can be trouble for the Buckeyes. For one, Ohio State is not deep. They play 7 players, and have stayed out of foul trouble all year (because they play great defense), but also because the teams in the Big10 are for the most part slow. The fastest team in the Big10 is Iowa (who happens to be in last), yet OSU only beat Iowa by five on the road, and demolished them at home. I won’t even state the obvious and say “if Sullinger gets in foul trouble, OSU is in trouble,” because while that’s true, OSU is so balanced and gets contributions from all their players that any one of them being in foul trouble is trouble. They only go 7 deep, but everyone of their players contributes greatly. There isn’t one guy that you see entering at a substitution and say “oh shit,” and hold your breath for four minutes expecting a dumb foul or a turnover. Purdue and Wisconsin, Ohio State’s only two losses, played up tempo for most of the game (in addition to playing very well).

More about Washington though. They close out with three home games in which they should win. That will give them four in a row going into the Pac10 tourney, which they could easily win, and then be on a streak headed to the big dance. They shoot extremely well from the field, and their real only weakness is free throw shooting. This isn’t the best for an up-tempo team, but as I mentioned with an example such as Ohio State, it will not be as if most teams can afford to put them on the line frequently. They could have easily won at Arizona this past weekend (in what was the game of the year), and if they had, they would have won five in a row and most likely won the Pac10. That one blocked shot by Derrick Williams may have made the difference between a 5 and 8 seed. Don’t be fooled by their number though, as this is a dangerous team.

Belmont – I already mentioned this team in the hopes that they would be favored over a higher ranked team (and that I would root for them). They had the fun distinction of playing Tennessee twice this year, losing both times, but once by nine and once by one. They had one slip up against Lipscomb, and lost at Vanderbilt by nine (Who I think is slightly overrated myself, but their effort is better than what St. Marys did at Vanderbilt).

The knock on Belmont will always be that they play in the Atlantic Sun, and have no quality wins. Well, I cant really defend that. But, should it matter? You just beat who is thrown in front of you, and for the most part, Belmont has done just that. They shoot an impressive 38% from beyond the three, and 52.6% from 2pt. They shoot 73.6% from the line. They’re sharpshooters. They play a relatively quick game (49^th in the nation). What’s most impressive about Belmont though, is that they’re 4^th in the nation in terms of bench minutes. No one on their team averages over 25 minutes, but ELEVEN players average over 10 minutes. By comparison, McDonald’s All-American U (Duke) has 9 players averaging over 10 MPG, Ohio State has seven (if you’ve been reading, you know this), Texas has 8, etc. For what its worth, Florida has 8 as well (you can tell Im pushing for this matchup. If I were on the committee, I would deadlock everyone until this matchup occurred).

All of these guys contribute though. Belmont has two players that shoot better than 80% from free throws, and three guys shoot better than 40% from beyond 3 (although one person is the same, leading scorer Ian Clark).

Rebounding could be a problem for them, as they are expectedly undersized. This is why, to contradict myself, if they play a big team such as Uconn or UNC, they may have trouble, but if they do play a team like Florida, Arizona, or Georgetown they wont.

In 2008, Belmont was a 15 seed. The first Thursday in 2008 saw no upsets in the early morning session, and no competitive games. A night game between #2 Duke and #15 Belmont figured to be no different. Duke was favored by 20 points. Kenpom had Belmont ranked as the 148^th best team, and Duke as the 8^th. Duke and Belmont played close for most of the first half, but the Blue Devils went into the half up 7. Surely they would explode in the second half and cruise to a comfortable, typical 2 seed victory. But Belmont had different ideas.

Belmont outplayed Duke in the second half. They tightened the screws on defense, and held the Blue Devils to just 29 points. Belmont took the lead by 1 with two minutes left, and then stopped Duke the next possession. They had the ball, up 1, with 1:50 left.

And they couldn’t close.

They missed a jumper. Duke rebounded, but Belmont held again. Now they had the ball, up 1, :50 seconds left. They drained the clock again, and missed a lay-up.

This time Duke came down and hit a lay-up, taking the lead back with 20 seconds left. Belmont couldn’t score again. They went scoreless in the final two minutes, and lost to Duke by 1.

The knock on Belmont will be their soft schedule, and the fact that they weren’t tested. It could be a repeat of 2008, a close but no cigar type scenario. Or, it could be that their experience, free throw shooting, and balanced scoring attack gets them over the hump this year. And maybe two humps, into the sweet 16……..