But what is the "Hes Not supposed to be here" equivalent for college football? Forget Boise State, Utah, TCU, all those teams. That "non-AQ" bullshit's ship has sailed. We get it, they're good teams. But let me ask you this - was it really surprising that TCU made the BCS last year? Probably not, since they were #6 preseason. Had Boise won against Nevada, it wouldnt have been a surprise since they were preseason #3. Actually, the fact that it was surprising Boise lost to Nevada and DIDNT make the BCS is an indication that those non-AQs just arent surprising anymore.
To me, what is more surprising is when the mid ranked BCS teams end up winning their conference (or making a BCS bowl). This happens every single year. Last year, Auburn was ranked #22 preseason, and went on to win the title. Michigan State was NR, and went 11-1 to split the Big10 title. UConn was NR (the entire year), and played in the Fiesta Bowl. Two years ago, Iowa was #22, and went on to win the Orange Bowl. Illinois, NR, makes Rose Bowl in 07. Kansas, NR, makes Orange Bowl in 07. Wake Forest, NR, in 2006, goes to the ORange Bowl.
The list goes on and on and on. You get the picture. To me, all these cases are more surprising than TCU, Boise, or Utah. So who are the teams that are going to qualify for the Hes Not Supposed to be here award in 2011? For the criteria, I'm only looking at teams ranked between 20-25, or not ranked. I will give one team for every conference.
ACC: Clemson
Clemson returns fourteen starters from a team that had trouble winning the close games last year. Clemson went 1-4 in games decided by less than 7 points (including an OT loss to Auburn). They played good defense the entire season, and return nine starters on offense.
Clemson should know very quickly where they stand in the ACC. They face Troy, Wofford, and Auburn, all at home, to start. Then, they host Florida State (who will be coming off their game vs Oklahoma). The next week, they travel to Virginia Tech. Those two games will be huge to Clemson's chances of winning the ACC. The rest of their ACC slate is manageable, and they could run the table after that.
Honorable Mention: North Carolina
Big East: Cincinnati
Nearly all the teams qualify for my criteria in the Big East. BUt since WV, Pitt and USF seem to be the frontrunners, I'll refrain from choosing them. Instead, Ill take Cinci. One year after going to a Sugar Bowl, the BEarcats finished a disappointing 4-8 with new head coach Butch Jones. They could challenge Pittsburgh for having the best defense in the conference (they return 10 starters), and figure to have the best offense in the conference. They have to travel to Tampa and Pitt, but host WV in Paul Brown Stadium. As we've seen in the past, however, a couple of losses does not necessarily spoil your chances to win the Big East.
Honorable Mention: Uconn, I guess
Big Ten: Illinois
Illinois finally has a schedule suited to success. For the first time in four years, they do not play Mizzou in St. Louis to start the season (they went 0-4). Instead, they play host to four non-conference games; Ark State, South Dakota State, Arizona State, and Western Michigan. Clearly, 3-1 has to be the worst possible start for the Illini.
While that is just non-conference, the conference schedule sets up equally nice. Phil Steele figures that the three toughest team from the Legends division are going to be Nebraska, Iowa, and Michigan State. Illinois avoids all three. Instead, they draw Northwestern, Michigan, and Minnesota, and only Minnesota is on the road.
***Quick Sidebar. Easy way to remember divisions; Legends div is "Iowa, The M's, and the N's - Michigan, MSU, Minny, Nebraska, and Northwestern. Leaders is the others: Illinois, Wisky, Purdue, Indy, OSU, PSU.
Inside their division; they host Ohio State and host Wisconsin. They have to go to Penn State, who they dominated in 2010, outgaining them 437-235 (at Penn State as well). All in all, Illinois has four road games. Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, and Minnesota. They are definitely better than 3 of those teams.
They return 13 starters. QB Scheelhaase played great as a true freshman. Their offensive line is made up of five men who are all 6'5" 300+. Even after losing LeShoure, the offense should maintain their tradition of being a very potent rush offense.
Defensively, the front 7 is a slight concern. Losing your main run stopper in Liuget, and your best LB in Wilson is not good. They have talent in Akeem Spence and Michael Buchanan on the front line, but depth is a concern. The entire defensive backfield is back. The encouraging part is that DC Vic Koening seems to have taught the team how to tackle. After years of losing one-on-ones in open space, Illinois immediately showed improvement on defense against Mizzou in the first game. This continued throughout most of the year (sans Michigan and the 4th quarter vs Minnesota), and culminated in a beat down against Baylor. They also use multiple packages and a rover position that makes the defense look a bit more like a 4-2-5.
It isn't unreasonable to think that the Illini can be 6-0 going into the game vs OSU (they would have to beat ASU and NW at home, and win at INdiana). After that, the sky is the limit. This can be a 6-2 Big Ten team.
Honorable Mention: Penn State. Which reminds me, I get pretty pissed off when everyone says NW is going to be the sleeper team. Maybe they will be better, yes, (they do avoid Ohio State and Wisconsin). But did people watch the last two games of theirs? They gave up 118 points combined to Illinois and Wisconsin. In both games, they gave up 559 yards.
Big 12: Kansas State
This was a hard one to pick, as OU figures to run over the Big12 (and you know I hate them). Additionally, TAMU, Okie State, and Texas are all ranked highly. Therefore, it was down to KSU and Mizzou, and Ill give the edge to the Wildcats.
While it is Bill Snyders 20th year at KSU, it is only the third of his current stint. This means he is finally playing with mostly his talent, and has had solid recruiting classes. They return 13 starters, and should be better than the team that got screwed in the Pinstripe Bowl last year. True, they lose their team MVP Daniel Thomas, but Steele figures for their defense to be much improved. The Wildcats started 4-0 last year, before entering Big12 play. There, they got beat up by Nebraska, and slipped up against Colorado, but they played Mizzou and Okie State tough.
This year, they host Baylor and Mizzou, which figure to be two important swing games. They go to Texas Tech and Kansas, both teams they should be better than. They host Texas AM and Oklahoma (on Homecoming, upset alertz). Their toughest games should be Am, OU, and traveling to Austin and Stillwater. This is a team that can finish 9-3.
Honorable Mention: Texas Tech
Pac-12: Washington
The Huskies won their last 3 regular season games last year, then kicked the shit out of Nebraska. How bad was it? In September in Seattle, the Huskies gave up 56 points on 533 yards. In December, they gave up 7 points on 189 yards. THats improvement. THey have 8 starters back.
Offensively, they return 1400 yard rusher Chris Polk, and three offensive linemen. Everyone will point to the loss of Jake Locker. True, they will be inexperienced at QB, but having Polk and a talented receiving corps helps (Jermain Kearse is the third leading receiver returning in the Pac-12). But, as coach ditka says. You have to run the ball and stop the run. Washington can do both. They avoid Arizona State and UCLA out of the south, so Ive seen worse schedules, despite having to go to USC and Stanford (they host Oregon).
Honorable Mention: UCLA, especially since they only have to beat out four opponents to make a Pac-12 title game.
SEC: Mississippi State
This selection comes almost as default, as there are a ridiculous 8 SEC teams ranked, and I don't see Vanderbilt winning the title. Allow me to elaborate further though.
Mississippi State was good last year. They went 9-4 in the toughest division in football. Their four losses were to Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU (they werent blowouts either, they lost to Auburn by 3, and Arkansas in 2ot in the worst gambling loss of the year for me). This year, they return 16 starters, and are under the third year of Dan Mullen. Last year, RB Vick Ballard and QB Chris Reif combined for 1874 rushing yards. This year, both return, along with 4 starters on the offensive line.
They travel to Memphis and Auburn to start the season. They should be 2-0. Then, in their home opener, they host LSU on a Thursday night. While they have to travel to UGA and to War Memorial for Arkansas, they host South Carolina, Alabama, and the aforementioned LSU. This team has 10-2 potential.
Honorable Mention: Tennessee
Bonus Picks: Here are 3 more quick non-AQs that could run the table and be in the BCS:
1. Houston: Loaded on offense, and theyll welcome QB Case Keenum back after he missed 90% of last season. Theyll need to improve on defense to win out (if you remember in 09, they started 3-0, beating Okie State and Texas Tech. As a result, they were ranked #12! They lost the next week to UTEP 41-58).
2. Southern Miss: 14 returning starters. A defense that figures to improve off a 8-5 season. Senior QB Austin Davis. A cupcake schedule. All combine to make them a legit threat to run the table. Houston and S. Miss dont play each other in the regular season. The thought of a combined 24-0 C-USA title game, as all the pundits argue whether the winner should be in the BCS is enough to make Mark May's head explode, which makes me excited.
3. Air Force: The schedule is tough, but so are the Falcons. They travel to ND, Boise, and Navy, and they host TCU. They return 14 starters from a 9-4 team. They played Oklahoma to 3 points last year. They lost to Utah by 5, and SDSU by 2, otherwise they would have had a 10 win season last year. They're led by a senior QB in Time Jefferson, and they have no glaring weaknesses. They are capable of pulling an upset or two, and being 10+ wins.
So if any of these teams makes a BCS game, I'll be happy. Remember, these are longshots. They're not supposed to be here. Just thought you'd like something different than the "Its gonna be Alabama Oklahoma, and it''ll be Nebraska, Oregon, Va Tech winning their conferences, and "sleepers" are Texas AM, Arkansas, and Georgia."
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