I finally got my hands on the Steele magazine yesterday. After looking at it for a while, Ive come to deduce a few things about the 2011 College Football Season. Here are, in no particular order, a few things to keep an eye on, and a few predictions for the upcoming season. There will be more to follow throughout the Summer, but these are just what jumps off the page.
---- The Oregon LSU game is a lot more important to Oregon than it is to LSU.
I know I just wrote an article about college football being cool mainly because every game counts. And that remains true. However, LSU can lose the opening week, finish 12-1 and still make the National Championship. I dont know if Oregon can. In the first four weeks, LSU plays Oregon, hosts NW State, then travels to Miss State, and then to WV. Ouch. On top of this, they host Florida, travel to Rocky Top, travel to Alabama, and of course, square off against rival Arkansas. It is now well known that the SEC was won the National Championship the past five years. That being said, the champion was only undefeated twice, last year with Auburn, and two years ago with Alabama. Three years ago, Florida lost to Ole Miss, four years ago, LSU lost twice; to Kentucky and Ark, and five years ago, Florida lost to Auburn. LSU's other title, in 2003, saw them lose to Florida. The point is, an early loss, and a 12-1 record in the SEC is good enough.
Oregon, on the other hand, may not have the schedule to rebound. The other non conf games are against Nevada and Missouri State at home. They travel to Stanford, travel to Wash, and host USC and ASU. That is really about it. They may benefit from the new Pac-12 title game. They may benefit even more as the title game will be at the stadium of the team with the better record. Assuming they are in a national title hunt, then the game figures to be in Autzen stadium, against an inferior Pac-12 South Opponent.
----- With the shit going on at OSU, Penn State might be the favorite in the Big10 Leaders Division.
When a lot of people first think of PSU from last year, they think of disappointing, failure, down year, finished, etc. While it was a down year, they did improve a lot as the year went on. They found themselves 3-3 in mid-October, which included losses @ Alabama, and back to back losses to Iowa and Illinois (at home). After that, they went 3-2, played MSU within a TD, and played Florida even in the Outback bowl. They werent great, but once they put Matt McGloin at QB, they improved. My guess is that he will be the QB to start the year (they've split time in Spring).
PSU's schedule is very interesting. They host Bama the second week of the year. They could very easily start the Big10 5-0. They travel to Indiana, host Iowa, Purdue, go to NW, and host Illinois. Again, 5-0 is possible. Then, after a bye week, they host Nebraska, then travel to OSU, and then to Wisconsin. Wow. Good news is that if they slip up early, and are only 4-1, or 3-2, they arent out of the division race. Bad news is that even if they start 6-0, they probably wont have locked it up.
----- I think South Carolina is a bit better than UGA as far as the SEC East goes, but UGA has a more favorable schedule.
This schedule includes the fact that UGA will host Spurrier the second week of the season. UGA only plays 3 conference road games; Mississippi, Tenn, Vanderbilt, and of course play Florida in Jacksonville. They also avoid Bama, LSU, and Arkansas from the SEC West! South Carolina, on the other hand, has road games at UGA, Miss State, Tenn, and Arkansas. They too avoid LSU and Alabama. I don't see Florida as being on the level as South Carolina and UGA. All this means that the SEC Title game should be an original matchup, i.e. not a rematch, as it was last year with South Carolina and Auburn - (unless Ark wins SEC west, which is improbable since they do play South Carolina from the east, and travel to LSU AND Bama).
----- In the last twelve years, the champion was coached by a 2nd year coach four times. In that same timespan, the team was coming off of a 5 loss season FOUR TIMES.
First, let us recognize that both of these statistics applies to Notre Dame. This is interesting for ND, but of course means nothing (ND wont win the title because LSU was coming off a 5 loss season in 03). But, both of these stats are interesting. First, a look at Championship winning coaches in the BCS era, and their year at the program:
1998: Fulmer - 7
1999: Bowden - 24
2000: Stoops - 2
2001: Coker - 1
2002: Tressel - 2 (whats he been up to recently? Lolz)
2003: Saban - 4 if you count Carroll, 3
2004: Carroll - 4
2005: Brown - 8
2006: Meyer - 2
2007: Miles - 3
2008: Meyer - 4
2009: Saban - 3
2010: Chizik - 2
So in 13 years of the BCS, the coach of the national championship team was only at the program for more than 4 years THREE times. I think that is remarkable. Is it because of these successes that many programs grow impatient and furious with coaches who dont get the job done? Or is it that impatience that creates a stat such as this - since no coach would be around for four years without winning a national title?
Even more interestingly is the second stat. That is, the championship team has come off a 5 loss season FOUR times. Again, a list of BCS champs, with their record from the previous year.
1998: Tennessee (11-2)
1999: FSU (11-2)
2000: Oklahoma (7-5)
2001: Miami (11-1)
2002: OSU (7-5)
2003: LSU (8-5).....USC was (11-2). Also, LSU's coaching staff in 02-03? HC-Saban, OC-Jimbo Fisher, DC-Muschamp. Thatll play.
2004: USC (12-1)
2005: Texas (11-1)
2006: Florida (9-3)
2007: LSU (11-2)
2008: Florida (9-4)
2009: Alabama (12-2)
2010: Auburn (8-5)
At this point in the year, were always looking for which teams finished strong, played in a BCS bowl the year before, improved, have starters back, etc. And for good reason. 7/13 times, the champion had 2 or less losses the year before. What is interesting though is that 6/13 times, or nearly half, it isnt one of those top 10 teams. It isn't a team like LSU last year, or Va Tech, or Oklahoma, but rather a 5 loss team such as ND, South Carolina, Texas Tech, USF, or Pitt, or a 4 loss team such as Nebraska or Texas AM, or FSU.
Theres another team with a 2nd year coach and who is coming off a 5 loss season, but theyre ineligible for postseason play....................................
---- I see two potential upsets in week 2. The first is TCU at Air Force. AF returns 14 starters, while TCU returns only 8. They may find it tough sledding early on on the road. Additionally, they play Baylor on the road the week before, and back to back road games is always difficult. IN 2009, at Air Force, TCU won by only 3, and in 07, they lost by 3 in OT.
The second is Toledo over Ohio State. OSU's problems are well documented, and play a major part of this. They will be breaking in a lot of new players still come week 2. Conversely, Toledo is the fourth most experienced team according to Steele, and they return 9 starters on both sides of the ball. Last year was their first winning season since 2005, and closed their season winning 5 of 6. They will obviously be outclassed by the Buckeyes, but can use their veteran leadership to nickel and dime themselves to an upset.
--- The most competitive conference figures to be..........Conference USA.
I saved perhaps the biggest shock for last. Consider the following for C-USA.
-Houston is the favorite in the conference. Case Keenum is ONLY 3500 yards away from becoming the all time leading passer in college history. I stress only because while it may seem like a lot of yards, he threw for 5600 and 5000 yards in last two seasons at full health. Last year, he was injured against UCLA in week 3 and missed the rest of the season. Despite Houston being the favorites, they finished 5-7 last season.
- Tulsa returns 18 starters from their team which finished the season ranked 24th in the nation. This year, their non-conference schedule is @ Oklahoma, @ Tulane, Oklahoma State, @ Boise. Wow. We will finally see if the college basketball theory of scheduling tough teams non-conference pays off for in-conference games (my hunch is - no, since football is a different animal than basketball, and losing to Duke in basketball is different than getting beat up by Oklahoma and Boise in football). That being said, although Tulsa may start 1-3, their C-USA schedule sets up for them to be 7-0 leading up to the showdown vs Houston (in Tulsa). They travel to Tulane, Rice, UCF, and UTEP. Houston is in the same division as Tulsa, and both could be 7-0 Thanksgiving weekend, and be playing for the CUSA West.
- SMU is also in CUSA West. They also have 18 starters back. According to Steele, they are the most experienced team in the nation (Tulsa is 3). That should serve them well entering June Jones' 4th year. They should improve on their 7-7 record from last year, but have to travel to both Tulsa and Houston.
- Note. While Rice finished 4-8 last year, they have 17 players returning. According to Steele, SMU, Tulsa, and Rice are 1st, 3rd, and 5th most experienced teams in the nation, and theyre all in the same division!
And in the C-USA East..........
-Southern Miss is the favorite. They return 14 players from their 8-5 campaign last year. Their last two regular season games against Houston and Tulsa resulted in a combined 100 and 106 points each! Austin Davis may be the most underrated QB in the nation. Last year he threw form 3100 yards, and had a 20-6 TD-Int Ratio. Its important to note that they do not play either Houston or Tulsa. According to Steele, four of his nine power rankings indicate S. Miss will go 12-0!
-Then there are the defending champs in UCF. All they did last year was go 11-3, beat UGA in the Liberty Bowl, and finish ranked 23 in the polls. They only return 10 starters, and while they avoid Houston, they have to host Tulsa, and travel to S. Miss and ECU. Repeating will be a tall order, but we're talking about a team that has gone to a bowl in 3/4 years.
- And last but not least, we have ECU. They took a small step back last year after Skip Holtz bolted for Tampa Bay. They have a killer non conf slate; South Carolina (in Charlotte), Va Tech, UAB, and UNC. They travel to Houston, avoid Tulsa, and host UCF and S. Miss. With all those big home games, they figure to be spoiler to at least one team. If they play spoiler to a couple, they may find themselves in the mix.
So, yeah, keep your eyes on C-USA this year baby.
